Compass Mining, a leading provider of Bitcoin mining infrastructure and services, released new analysis examining the dramatic shift in Bitcoin mining economics following Bitcoin's sharp price decline.

Bitcoin's recent decline from around $95,000 toward $65,000 has materially compressed mining margins, triggering a predictable downstream response across the mining sector.

According to Compass Mining's January 2026 Bitcoin Mining Monthly Report, mining profitability has become increasingly concentrated among operators with access to low-cost power and next-generation hardware, while higher-cost and legacy fleets face mounting pressure.

The report highlights a growing divergence in ASIC performance. In January, estimated daily rewards ranged from $46.78 for next-generation liquid-cooled machines like Antminer U3S23H to $6.05 for older air-cooled models like Antminer's S19 XP, representing a 7.7x gap between the most and least productive miners under identical network conditions.

Hashprice, a commonly used indicator of miner revenue per unit of hashrate, fell to approximately $0.034 per terahash per second as of February 11, marking among the weakest levels and down about 35% from a year earlier.

As miner economics tightened, hardware pricing adjusted accordingly. Data from Hashrate Index shows that average prices for highly efficient ASICs below 19 joules per terahash declined roughly 23% to about $15 per terahash as of today, down from $19.49 in January 2024.

"Bitcoin price declines tend to ripple through mining economics in a very consistent way," said Shanon Squires, Chief Mining Officer at Compass Mining. "As margins compress, hardware demand softens, payback periods extend, and pricing resets. What we're seeing now closely mirrors historical patterns observed during prior drawdowns."

Compass Mining's analysis also notes that headline index prices often understate the depth of hardware discount occurring in specific market segments. While $15 per terahash represents an average "naked price" for sub-19 J/TH machines, fully deployed, ready-to-hash units are now being offered at comparable or lower all-in pricing in certain channels. Historically, additional costs such as shipping, customs, tariffs, and logistics can add 20% to 100% to a miner's base price.

Looking ahead, the February outlook remains challenging. Consensus expectations center around $70,000 Bitcoin, with prediction markets assigning roughly a 38% probability of prices falling below $65,000 in the near term. Under those conditions, profitability for older-generation machines deteriorates rapidly, increasing shutdown risk and reinforcing pressure on hardware valuations.

At the same time, Compass Mining's report suggests that miners with access to electricity below 5¢ per kWh and sufficient operational flexibility may find the current environment favorable for strategic entries or fleet upgrades.

Historically, periods of hardware price compression combined with difficulty adjustments have created lucrative opportunities to deploy capital selectively ahead of market normalization.